Not as bad as many people think

Things aren’t as bad in the world as many people seem to think. Why does pessimism often take precedence over facts?

BBC:  Why things may be not be as bad as we think

…most of us, most of the time, seem to think the world’s going to hell in a handcart – even when it isn’t.

I don’t know if ‘most of us’ is accurate – perhaps most of those who express their fears about what problems are actual or imminent.

The evidence is in a report by the research company Ipsos-Mori, The Perils of Perception. Our perceptions of the world, it turns out, are often at odds with the reality – and significantly more negative.

The researchers put the same questions to people in 38 countries, and found a pattern.

Some examples:

  • The murder rate in most countries has fallen significantly in the past 15 years. That’s the reality, but most people don’t believe it – fewer than one in 10 thinks there are fewer murders
  • Deaths from terrorist attacks around the world were lower in the past 15 years than in the previous 15 – but only a fifth of us think that’s the case

Even when it comes to other areas of public life, people’s assessments can tend to be incorrect.

For example, people overestimate the number of teenage pregnancies by what the researchers call staggering amounts.

In some countries, they think about half of teenage girls get pregnant every year: in reality, the highest figure for any country is 6.7%, and the rate across all 38 countries is just 2%.

Teen pregnancy rates in New Zealand (source NZH):

  • 1962: 5.4%
  • 1972: 6.9%
  • 2008: 3.3%
  • 2016: 1.6%

Coupled with that are misconceptions  about the rate of teenage mothers on the ‘DPB’.

One reason for this tendency to assume the worst of the world, say the Ipsos-Mori people, is that we’re genetically programmed to believe bad news more readily than good.

Our brains process negative information in a different way and store it more accessibly than positive stuff.

News is by definition something unexpected, surprising, and probably alarming. The world is getting healthier and wealthier, which is good news, but headlines about that sort of thing just don’t cut it when there’s a terrorist attack or a war to report.

“If it bleeds, it leads,” is said to be the tabloid news editor’s mantra. Whoever coined the phrase clearly had a profound insight into human nature.

Critics talk about “fear-based media”. If we’re fed such a relentlessly negative diet, they ask, is it any wonder we end up thinking the world is a terrible place?

Except, it turns out, we already thought that – or at least were predisposed to think it.

All those negative news stories are just reinforcement, feeding us what we’re programmed to want – because it may save our lives.

This hypersensitivity to negative information – or bad news – apparently served an important function as human beings evolved.

Having the kind of brain that reacted more strongly to information about possible dangers meant, quite simply, that you were likely to live longer.

And those who didn’t have that kind of brain? Well, as one scientist delicately put it, they “got edited out of the gene pool”.

Now those who worry too much about negatives and fear that the sky is about to fall are more likely to die of stress related illness.